3 Critical Unemployment Charts – January 2018

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the … Read more3 Critical Unemployment Charts – January 2018

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the January 4, 2018 update (reflecting data through December 29, 2017) is -1.562. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Deflation Probabilities – January 4, 2018 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities – January 4, 2018 Update

Recession Probability Models – January 2018

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read moreRecession Probability Models – January 2018

VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – January 3, 2018 Update

For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Tuesday’s (January 2, 2018) close, which had a closing value of 9.77. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart … Read moreVIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – January 3, 2018 Update

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – January 3, 2018 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, … Read moreCharts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – January 3, 2018 Update

Stock Index Charts DJIA DJTA S&P500 & Nasdaq Composite

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The … Read moreStock Index Charts DJIA DJTA S&P500 & Nasdaq Composite

U.S. Dollar Decline – January 2, 2018 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial … Read moreU.S. Dollar Decline – January 2, 2018 Update