Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The December 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.27; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.14):
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of December 16, 2016 (incorporating data through December 9, 2016) the WLI was at 143.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 11.0%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of December 16, 2016:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through December 17, 2016:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the December 16, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Remains Flat in November,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.6, the CEI was at 114.6, and the LAG was 123.2 in November.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. Leading Economic Index continued on an upward trend through 2016, although at a moderate pace of growth,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The underlying trends in the LEI suggest that the economy will continue expanding into the first half of 2017, but it’s unlikely to considerably accelerate. Although the industrial and construction indicators held the U.S. LEI back in November, the weakness was offset by improvements in the interest rate spread, initial unemployment insurance claims, and stock prices.”
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2260.97 as this post is written