Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through July 29, 2016

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of July 29, 2016.  As one can see, two of the three measures are at an … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through July 29, 2016

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Second Quarter 2016

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read moreEmployment Cost Index (ECI) – Second Quarter 2016

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of July 29, 2016

Doug Short had a blog post of July 29, 2016 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment:  July Final Slightly Worse Than Expected“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of July 29, 2016

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 2nd Quarter 2016

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate:  A Major Downside Surprise” post of July 29, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q2 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of July 29, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX … Read moreReal GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 2nd Quarter 2016

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through June 2016

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2016, updated on July 27, 2016. This value is $219,754 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through June 2016

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the July 21, 2016 update (reflecting data through July 15) is -1.141. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The Bond Bubble – July 2016 Update

In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets, as my analyses indicates that the overall bond market is an exceedingly large asset bubble with immensely large and wide-ranging economic implications. Since my last post on the Bond Bubble (the June 24, 2014 post titled “The Bond Bubble – June 2014 Update“) I have … Read moreThe Bond Bubble – July 2016 Update

Money Supply Charts Through June 2016

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through June 2016

The U.S. Economic Situation – July 25, 2016 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read moreThe U.S. Economic Situation – July 25, 2016 Update

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of July 22, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business … Read moreBroad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity