Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of July 29, 2016

Doug Short had a blog post of July 29, 2016 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment:  July Final Slightly Worse Than Expected“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the …

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Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 2nd Quarter 2016

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate:  A Major Downside Surprise” post of July 29, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q2 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of July 29, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the July 21, 2016 update (reflecting data through July 15) is -1.141. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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The Bond Bubble – July 2016 Update

In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets, as my analyses indicates that the overall bond market is an exceedingly large asset bubble with immensely large and wide-ranging economic implications. Since my last post on the Bond Bubble (the June 24, 2014 post titled “The Bond Bubble – June 2014 Update“) I have …

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Money Supply Charts Through June 2016

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …

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The U.S. Economic Situation – July 25, 2016 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of July 22, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …

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