Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The December 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 21, 2015:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of December 18, 2015 (incorporating data through December 11, 2015) the WLI was at 131.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at -.6%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of December 18, 2015, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: ‘Another Fractional Decrease from Previous Week’“:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through December 12, 2015:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the December 17, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.6, the CEI was at 113.3, and the LAG was 119.6 in November.
An excerpt from the December 17 release:
“The U.S. LEI registered another increase in November, with building permits, the interest rate spread, and stock prices driving the improvement,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although the six-month growth rate of the LEI has moderated, the economic outlook for the final quarter of the year and into the new year remains positive.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of December 17 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Slight Increase in November“:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2013.38 as this post is written