Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The May 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 21, 2015:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of May 22, 2015 (incorporating data through May 15, 2015) the WLI was at 133.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at 1.5%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of May 22, 2015, titled “ECRI: Fed Rate Hike May Be Delayed Due to Inclement Data“:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through May 16, 2015:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the May 21, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again,” the LEI was at 122.3 and the CEI was at 112.0 in April.
An excerpt from the May 21 release:
“April’s sharp increase in the LEI seems to have helped stabilize its slowing trend, suggesting the paltry economic growth in the first quarter may be temporary,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “However, the growth of the LEI does not support a significant strengthening in the economic outlook at this time. The improvement in building permits helped to drive the index up this month, but gains in other components, in particular the financial indicators, have been somewhat more muted.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of May 21 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased Again in April“:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2126.06 as this post is written