Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2015

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 23, 2015:

cfnai-monthly-ma3 1-23-15

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of January 23, 2015 (incorporating data through January 16, 2015) the WLI was at 130.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at -5.0%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of January 23, 2015, titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Update“:


The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through January 17, 2015:

ads index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the January 23, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again,” the LEI was at 121.1 and the CEI was at 111.4 in December.

An excerpt from the January 23 release:

“December’s gain in the LEI was driven by a majority of its components, suggesting the short-term outlook is getting brighter and the economy continues to build momentum,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Still, a lack of growth in residential construction and average weekly hours in manufacturing remains a concern. Current economic conditions measured by the coincident indicators show employment and income gains are helping to keep the U.S. economy on a solid expansionary path despite some weakness in industrial production.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of January 23 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased Again in November“ :

Conference Board LEI



I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2062.85 as this post is written