Updates Of Economic Indicators May 2014

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The May 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of May 22, 2014:


The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of May 16, 2014 (incorporating data through May 9, 2014) the WLI was at 136.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.9%.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through May 17, 2014:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the May 22, 2014 press release, the LEI was at 101.4 and the CEI was at 108.5 in April.

An excerpt from the May 22 release:

“Despite a brutal winter which brought the economy to a halt, the overall trend in the leading economic index has remained positive,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. “If consumers continue to spend, and businesses pick up the pace of investment, the industrial core of the economy will benefit and GDP growth could move closer towards the 3 percent range.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of May 22 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased in April“ :

Conference Board LEI


I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1892.49 as this post is written