Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The February 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 24, 2014:
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of February 21, 2014 (incorporating data through February 14, 2014) the WLI was at 133.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.5%.
Here is a chart of the ECRI WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s February 21, 2014 post titled “ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update” :
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 15, 2014:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the February 20, 2014 press release, the LEI was at 99.5 and the CEI was at 108.1 in January.
An excerpt from the February 20 release:
“The increase in the Leading Economic Index reflects an economy that is expanding moderately, although the pace is somewhat held back by persistent and severe inclement weather in most parts of the country,” said Economist Ken Goldstein. “If the economy is going to move on to a faster track in 2014 compared to last year, consumer demand and especially investment will need to pick up significantly from their current trends.
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of February 23 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Edged up in January“ :
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1856.26 as this post is written