Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The January 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 23, 2014:
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of 1/17/14 (incorporating data through 1/10/14) the WLI was at 134.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 3.7%.
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting 12-31-07 through 1-18-14:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the January 23 press release, the LEI was at 99.4 and the CEI was at 108.1 in December.
An excerpt from the January 23 release:
“Despite month-to-month volatility in the final quarter of 2013, the U.S. LEI continues to point to gradually strengthening economic conditions through early 2014,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “The LEI was lifted by its financial components in December, but consumer expectations for business conditions and residential construction continue to pose risks.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of January 23 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Edged up in December“ :
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1828.46 as this post is written