The November 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 7, 2013.  The headline is “Fed Won’t Taper Until Next Year, Most Economists Agree.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.

Here is one excerpt I found notable:

Most of the respondents see current Fed policy as too easy and fiscal policy as too constraining.

On Fed policy, more than half —23 of 41 respondents — said it was “too loose.” Just 17 said it was “just right” and one said it was “too tight.”

Meanwhile, federal tax and spending policies are “too tight,” according to more than half—20 of the 38 economists who commented.

As to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the average was 13%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2013:  1.9%

full-year 2014:  2.8%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2013: 7.0%

December 2014: 6.6%

December 2015: 6.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2013: 2.75%

December 2014: 3.43%

December 2015: 3.89%


December 2013:  1.6%

December 2014:  2.0%

December 2015:  2.2%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2013: $97.61

for 12/31/2014: $96.82

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1771.89 as this post is written