Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The September 2013 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of September 23, 2013:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of 9/20/13 (incorporating data through 9/13/13) the WLI was at 132.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.5%.
A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of September 20 titled “ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update” :
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting 12-31-07 through 9-14-13:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the September 19 press release, the LEI was at 96.6 and the CEI was at 106.3 in August.
An excerpt from the September 19 release:
“After a brief pause, the U.S. LEI rose sharply in July and August, resuming its upward trend,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “If the LEI’s six-month growth rate, which has nearly doubled, continues in the coming months, economic growth should gradually strengthen through the end of the year. Despite weakness in residential construction, consumer expectations, and the stock market, improvements in the LEI’s labor market and financial components, as well as new manufacturing orders, drove this month’s gain.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of September 19 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Continued to Rise in August” :
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1701.84 as this post is written