The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 17, 2013. The headline is “Economists Wary as Fed’s Next Forecast Looms.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.
Notable excerpts from the article include:
In every year of the economic recovery the Federal Reserve has overestimated how fast the economy would grow. Many economists believe it is doing so again.
In normal times, achieving 2.6% growth wouldn’t be much cause for celebration. But these aren’t normal times and that rate already at midyear looks like a high hurdle. Second-quarter growth appears soft. Economists surveyed by the Journal estimate the economy is growing at a 1.9% annualized rate in the current quarter, after a 2.4% rate in the first quarter. If they’re right, that would mean growth would have to accelerate in the second half of the year—amid continued drag from federal government spending cuts and tax increases—to meet the Fed’s not-so-lofty expectations.
As well, as to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the average was 15%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2013: 2.3%
full-year 2014: 2.8%
full-year 2015: 3.0%
December 2013: 7.3%
December 2014: 6.7%
December 2015: 6.2%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2013: 2.36%
December 2014: 2.97%
December 2015: 3.61%
December 2013: 1.7%
December 2014: 2.1%
December 2015: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2013: $94.12
for 12/31/2014: $94.67
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1626.73 as this post is written