The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 11, 2012. The headline is “Forecasters Say Fed Will Do More to Stir Economy.”
I found various excerpts to be notable, including the following:
“The Fed is now behind on both goals of its dual objective,” said Allen Sinai of Decision Economics, who noted that the current unemployment rate of 8.2% is well above the central bank’s perceived goal of around 6%, while annual inflation of around 1.5% is below the 2% target.
also:
They also say there is a 21% chance of recession in the next 12 months.
also:
Though there is disagreement over Fed policy, most economists give the U.S. central bank relatively high marks compared with its international peers. On a scale of 0-100, with 65 considered a passing grade, the Fed scored an average of 73, with just 25% of economists giving it a failing grade and 53% giving it As or Bs.
Furthermore, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), there was this question: “Is the risk to your 2012 growth forecast more to the upside or downside?” to which 91% indicated “downside” and 9% “upside.”
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2012: 2.0%
full-year 2013: 2.5%
full-year 2014: 2.9%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2012: 8.0%
December 2013: 7.6%
December 2014: 7.0%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2012: 1.96%
December 2013: 2.69%
December 2014: 3.37%
CPI:
December 2012: 1.8%
December 2013: 2.2%
December 2014: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2012: $88.37
for 12/31/2013: $91.56
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1341.45 as this post is written