The July 2012 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 11, 2012.  The headline is “Forecasters Say Fed Will Do More to Stir Economy.”

I found various excerpts to be notable, including the following:

“The Fed is now behind on both goals of its dual objective,” said Allen Sinai of Decision Economics, who noted that the current unemployment rate of 8.2% is well above the central bank’s perceived goal of around 6%, while annual inflation of around 1.5% is below the 2% target.


They also say there is a 21% chance of recession in the next 12 months.


Though there is disagreement over Fed policy, most economists give the U.S. central bank relatively high marks compared with its international peers. On a scale of 0-100, with 65 considered a passing grade, the Fed scored an average of 73, with just 25% of economists giving it a failing grade and 53% giving it As or Bs.

Furthermore, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), there was this question: “Is the risk to your 2012 growth forecast more to the upside or downside?” to which 91% indicated “downside” and 9% “upside.”

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2012:  2.0%

full-year 2013:  2.5%

full-year 2014:  2.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2012: 8.0%

December 2013: 7.6%

December 2014:  7.0%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2012: 1.96%

December 2013: 2.69%

December 2014:  3.37%


December 2012:  1.8%

December 2013:  2.2%

December 2014:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2012: $88.37

for 12/31/2013: $91.56

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1341.45 as this post is written