CEO Confidence Surveys 2Q 2012 – Notable Excerpts

On July 5, The Conference Board released its 2nd Quarter CEO Confidence Survey.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 47, down from 63 in the first quarter.

Notable excerpts from this July 5 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions has turned considerably negative. Only 17 percent claim conditions have improved compared to six months ago, down significantly from 67 percent last quarter. A more negative attitude was also expressed regarding their appraisal of their own industries. Now, just 22 percent of business leaders say conditions have improved, compared with 42 percent in the first quarter of this year.


Regarding profit expectations over the next 12 months, 64 percent of CEOs expect increases.

The Business Roundtable also recently released their CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2012.   Notable excerpts from the June 20 release, titled “America’s CEOs Soften Expectations on U.S. Economy” include the following:

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey Index – a composite index of CEO expectations for the next six months of sales, capital spending and employment – trended downward to 89.1 in the second quarter of 2012, from 96.9 in the first quarter of 2012.


“CEOs envision somewhat slower overall economic growth for 2012 and have modestly lower expectations for sales, capital expenditures, and hiring as compared to last quarter,” said Jim McNerney, Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman, President and CEO of The Boeing Company.  “While CEOs see continued economic expansion, the dip in quarterly sentiment reflects concern over increasingly persistent obstacles to a stronger recovery, including uncertainty over year-end U.S. Government tax and spending plans and a path to resolution of the Eurozone crises.”


In terms of the overall U.S. economy, Business Roundtable members estimate real GDP will grow by 2.1 percent in 2012, down slightly from last quarter’s estimate of 2.3 percent.


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1334.76 as this post is written