In the February 7 (“The VIX Level Of 20 And Its Continual Significance“) as well as the February 6 (“Notable Technical And Sentiment Extremes In The Stock Market“) posts I discussed various notable aspects of the stock market, ones that I viewed as problematic and worrisome.
In this post, I would like to provide an update on two of those aspects. First, at yesterday’s close, the VIX was at 15.64. As I discussed in the aforementioned February 7 post:
In addition, when one views the VIX compared to the stock market (S&P500) over the last few years, one might conclude that a VIX level under 20 signifies investor overconfidence and/or complacency, as the stock market has often reacted in a sharply negative manner after sustained VIX advances above the 20 level.
Below is a chart displaying the VIX, in red, on a LOG scale, 10-year daily basis through this morning’s current level of 14.21. Below the VIX is the S&P500 :
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
In addition, the price levels of the VIX vs. the VIX futures is highly notable. I discussed this aspect in the aforementioned February 6 post.
At this moment, with the S&P500 at 1378.11, the VIX is at 14.32, while some VIX futures are at the following levels:
March VIX futures = 17.40
April VIX futures= 21.55
May VIX futures = 23.60
June VIX futures =24.85
August futures = 26.95
September futures =27.70
I view this spread as being highly outsized and is one of many “red flags” in the market.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1378.11 as this post is written