The November 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published November 15, 2010.

I found a couple of items to be especially interesting.

First, regarding the impact of QE2:  “The economic impact of the Fed’s moves is likely to be modest, the forecasters said. They estimate growth in GDP will rise by 0.2 percentage points in 2011 because of the Fed’s bond buying and the unemployment rate will fall by less than 0.1 percentage point.”

Second, “Although the economists expect slow growth and continued high unemployment, they put the odds of renewed recession in the next 12 months at 16%, the lowest level since the May survey and down from a high of 21% in September.”

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

Ten-Year Treasury Yield:

for 12/31/2010: 2.61%

for 12/31/2011: 3.51%


for 12/1/2010: 1.2%

for 12/1/2011: 1.9%

Unemployment Rate:

for 12/1/2010: 9.6%

for 12/1/2011: 8.9%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2010: $82.95

for 12/31/2011: $86.43


full-year 2010 : 2.5%

full-year 2011 : 2.9%

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1197.75 as this post is written