Tag Archives: disturbing charts

Disturbing Charts (Update 17)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 67 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 12-16-14):

housing starts

US. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, January 14, 2015.

The Federal Deficit (last updated 10-15-14):

federal deficit

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, January 14, 2015.

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 10-15-14):

Federal Net Outlays

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, January 13, 2015.

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-30-14):

EconomicGreenfield 1-15-15 ASLPITAX 7-30-14 Percent Change From Year Ago

US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASLPITAX/, January 14, 2015.

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 1-9-15):

total loans and leases

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTLL/, January 14, 2015.

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 1-9-15):

total bank credit

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks [TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, January 14, 2015.

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 1-2-15):

money multiplier

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, January 14, 2015.

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 1-9-15):

median duration of unemployment

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, January 14, 2015.

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 1-9-15):

labor force participation rate

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/, January 14, 2015.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 12-22-14):

CFNAI MA-3

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, January 14, 2015.

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2011.27 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 16)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 64 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following nine charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 9-18-14):

housing starts

The Federal Deficit (last updated 10-15-14):

U.S. Federal Deficit

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 10-15-14):

Federal Government outlays

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-30-14):

ASLPITAX Percent Change From Year Ago

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-10-14):

Total Loans and Leases Percent Change From Year Ago

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-10-14):

Total Loans and Leases Percent Change From Year Ago

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 10-9-14):

Money Multiplier

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 10-3-14):

median duration of unemployment

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 10-3-14):

labor force participation rate

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 9-22-14):

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1862.76 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 15)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 61 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following nine charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 6-17-14):

Housing Starts

The Federal Deficit (last updated 3-14-14):

Federal Deficit

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 3-14-14):

Federal Net Outlays

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-27-14):

State And Local Income Tax Receipts

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-11-14):

Total Loans and Leases

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-11-14):

Total Bank Credit

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 7-3-14):

money multiplier

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 7-3-14):

median duration of unemployment

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 7-3-14):

Labor Force Participation Rate

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 6-23-14):

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1973.28 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 14)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 58 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following eight charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 3-18-14):

Housing Starts

The Federal Deficit (last updated 3-14-14):

Federal Deficit

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 3-14-14):

Federal Net Outlays

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-27-14):

ASLPITAX

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-11-14):

Total Loans and Leases Percent Change From Year Ago

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-11-14):

Total Bank Credit Percent Change From Year Ago

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 4-10-14):

Money Multiplier

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 4-4-14):

Median Duration of Unemployment

This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of April 4, 2014, titled “March Employment Report:  192,000 Jobs, 6.7% Unemployment Rate” and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

CR 4-4-14 -  EmployRecMar2014

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 3-24-14):

CFNAI MA-3

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1842.98 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 13)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 55 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following eight charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 12-18-13):

EconomicGreenfield 1-15-14 - HOUST_12-18-13 1091

The Federal Deficit (last updated 11-1-13):

EconomicGreenfield 1-14-14 FYFSD_11-1-13 680276

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 11-1-13):

EconomicGreenfield 1-15-14 - FYONET_11-1-13 3454253

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-31-13):

EconomicGreenfield 1-15-14 - ASLPITAX 7-31-13 Percent Change From Year Ago

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 1-10-14):

EconomicGreenfield 1-15-14 - TOTLL 1-10-14 Percent Change From Year Ago

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 1-10-14):

EconomicGreenfield 1-15-14 - TOTBKCR 1-10-14 Percent Change From Year Ago

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 1-2-14):

EconomicGreenfield 1-15-14 - MULT 1-2-14 .722

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 1-10-14):

EconomicGreenfield 1-14-14 UEMPMED 1-10-14 17.1 weeks

This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of January 10, 2014, titled “December Employment Report:  74,000 Jobs, 6.7% Unemployment Rate” and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

CR 1-10-14 - EmployRecDec2013

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 12-23-13):

cfnai_monthly_MA3 12-23-13

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1838.88 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 12)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 52 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following eight charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 9-18-13):

EconomicGreenfield 10-16-13 HOUST_9-18-13

The Federal Deficit (last updated 4-19-13):

EconomicGreenfield 10-16-13 FYFSD_4-19-13

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 4-19-13):

EconomicGreenfield 10-16-13 FYONET_4-19-13

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-31-13):

EconomicGreenfield 10-16-13 ASLPITAX_7-31-13 Percent Change From Year Ago

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-11-13):

EconomicGreenfield 10-16-13 TOTLL_10-11-13 Percent Change From Year Ago

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-11-13):

EconomicGreenfield 10-16-13 TOTBKCR_10-11-13 Percent Change From Year Ago

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 10-10-13):

EconomicGreenfield 10-16-13 MULT_10-10-13

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 9-6-13):

EconomicGreenfield 10-16-13 UEMPMED_9-6-13

This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of September 6, 2013, titled “August Employment Report:  169,000 Jobs, 7.3% Unemployment Rate”and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

EconomicGreenfield 10-16-13 CR 9-6-13 EmployRecAug2013

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 9-23-13):

EconomicGreenfield 10-16-13 cfnai_monthly_MA3 9-23-13

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1698.06 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 11)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 49 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following 8 charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 6-18-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 HOUST_6-18-13 914

The Federal Deficit (last updated 4-19-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 FYFSD_4-19-13 -1086963

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 4-19-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 FYONET_4-19-13 3537127

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-28-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 ASLPITAX_3-28-13 Percent Change From Year Ago

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 6-28-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 TOTLL 6-28-13 Percent Change From Year Ago

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 6-28-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 TOTBKCR 6-28-13 Percent Change From Year Ago

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 6-20-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 MULT 6-20-13 .79

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 6-7-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 UEMPMED 6-7-13 17.3 weeks

This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of June 7, 2013, titled “May Employment Report:  175,000 Jobs, 7.6% Unemployment Rate” and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

CR 6-7-13 EmployRecMay2013

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 6-24-13):

cfnai_monthly_MA3 6-24-13

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1614.96 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 10)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 44 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following 8 charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 2-20-13):

EconomicGreenfield 3-13-13 HOUST_2-20-13

The Federal Deficit (last updated 10-15-12):

EconomicGreenfield 3-13-13 FYFSD 10-15-12

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 10-15-12):

EconomicGreenfield 3-13-13 FYONET 10-15-12

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 2-28-13):

EconomicGreenfield 3-13-13 ASLPITAX Percent Change from Year Ago

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-9-13):

EconomicGreenfield 3-13-13 TOTLL Percent Change from Year Ago

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-8-13):

EconomicGreenfield 3-13-13 TOTBKCR Percent Change from Year Ago

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 2-28-13):

EconomicGreenfield 3-13-13 MULT

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 3-8-13):

EconomicGreenfield 3-13-13 UEMPMED

This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of March 8, 2013, titled “February Employment Report:  236,000 Jobs, 7.7% Unemployment Rate” and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

CR 3-8-13 EmployRecFeb2013

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 2-25-13):

cfnai_monthly_MA3 2-25-13

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1550.03 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 9)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they depict such a tenuous situation now – 41 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from The Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following 8 charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 11-20-12):

The Federal Deficit (last updated 10-15-12):

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 10-15-12):

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-27-12):

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 12-7-12):

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 12-7-12):

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 12-6-12):

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 12-7-12):

This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of 12-7-12, titled “November Employment Report:  146,000 Jobs, 7.7% Unemployment Rate” and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 11-26-12):

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1432.44 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 8)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they depict such a tenuous situation now – 38 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.  I regularly discuss many troubling characteristics of our economy in this EconomicGreenfield.com blog.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from The Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following 8 charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 8-16-12):

The Federal Deficit (last updated 2-13-12):

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 2-13-12):

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-27-12):

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 8-13-12):

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 8-13-12):

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 8-16-12):

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 8-3-12):

This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of 8-3-12, titled “July Unemployment Report:  163,000 Jobs, 8.3% Unemployment Rate” and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 8-20-12):

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1418.16 as this post is written