Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The November 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 24, 2014:
As of November 21, 2014 (incorporating data through November 14, 2014) the WLI was at 133.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.4%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of November 21, 2014, titled “ECRI Recession Watch: Update“:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 15, 2014:
As per the November 20, 2014 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again,” the LEI was at 105.2 and the CEI was at 110.2 in October.
An excerpt from the November 20 release:
“The upward trend in the LEI points to continued economic growth through the holiday season and into early 2015,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. “This is consistent with our outlook for relatively good, but not great, consumer demand over the near term. Going forward, there are continued concerns about slow business investment and lackluster income growth.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of November 20 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased Again in October“ :
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2069.23 as this post is written