America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 29, 2015 update (reflecting data through October 23) is -.842. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2015, and were last updated as of October 29, 2015. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate at 1.5%, A Big Decline from Q2’s 3.9%” post of October 29, 2015, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2015 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 29, 2015: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 22, 2015 update (reflecting data through October 16) is -.781. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September, updated on October 27, 2015. This value is $231,080.0 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge images) …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 22, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of October 16, 2015 (incorporating data through October …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 15, 2015 update (reflecting data through October 9) is -.706. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of October 15, 2015, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …