America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 15, 2018 update (reflecting data through November 9, 2018) is -.998. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 1, 2018 update (reflecting data through October 26, 2018) is -.997. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 25, 2018 update (reflecting data through October 19, 2018) is -1.125. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of October 4, 2018, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2018.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2018, and were last updated as of October 26, 2018. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.326: Data Source: FRED, …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of October 26, 2018 titled “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 3.5%” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2018 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 26, 2018: _________ I post various indicators and indices …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2018, updated on October 25, 2018. This value is $262,098 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 18, 2018 update (reflecting data through October 12, 2018) is -1.108. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …