America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators continue to indicate U.S. economic growth and financial system stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect. There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 8, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The Doug Short site had a post of January 31, 2020 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: January Final Remains Positive“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2019, and were last updated as of January 30, 2020. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.288: Data Source: FRED, …
On Wednesday, January 29, 2020 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled January 2020 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of January 30, 2020 titled “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.1%” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2019 (Advance Estimate) of January 30, 2020: _________ I post various …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 23, 2020 update (reflecting data through January 17, 2020) is -1.567. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2019, updated on January 28, 2020. This value is $245,484 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …