America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, …
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portrayed a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, and now indicate sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through July 2022. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of July 29, 2022 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Mostly Unchanged for July Final“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 13, 2022, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2022.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
On Wednesday, July 27, 2022 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled July 2022 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 28, 2022 update (reflecting data through July 22, 2022) is -2.2238: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2022, and were last updated as of July 28, 2022. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.207: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of July 28, 2022 titled “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -.9%, Worse Than Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) of July 28, 2022: _________ I post various indicators …