America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I think the following chart is one that surely deserves attention: (click on chart image to enlarge) Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve It shows the Median Duration of Unemployment. One notices the trajectory of the chart during our current period of economic weakness. Although I have reservations as to how the data on this chart …
Businesses have reacted to the tumultuous economic conditions in many ways. A logical action has been to reduce cash outlays to a level appropriate to what the new economic conditions seemingly warrant. Along these lines, expenses have undergone scrutiny and in many cases have been cut, in order to preserve cash as well as improve profitability …
In addition to the adversity and financial strains suffered by firms during this period of economic weakness, there exists significant uncertainty on many fronts. As mentioned in the last post, many businesses would find any further economic weakness to pose a formidable challenge. Although economist forecasts are predicting a weak economic recovery from here, economic forecasts have proven less than accurate the last …
The economic weakness that has occurred has caused a significant amount of financial damage. This can be seen in a variety of indicators and statistics, such as widening credit spreads, defaults, credit downgrades, etc. These worsening conditions have been accompanied by a curtailed (in many cases severely) access to credit. Whereas credit and other types …
The economic weakness that accelerated in the latter months of 2008 and into 2009 played out in a very “tricky” fashion. Very few mainstream economists foresaw what would happen. A testament to the complexity of the situation as 2008 progressed was the business shows airing arguments during the summer as to whether the economy was even in …
“As unemployment approaches 10%, what is less well publicized is that the number of “underutilized” workers in the U.S. has increased dramatically from 15 to 30 million. Those without jobs, as well as those individuals who only work part-time and have become discouraged and stopped looking, total 30 MILLION people. The number is staggering.” -Bill …
I ran across the following chart from chartoftheday.com, and found it interesting: http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090703.htm?T As one can see, the current degree of job losses is rather atypical. I would also like to highlight another issue as well. From a historical perspective, this (purported) recession, that the NBER has classified as having started in December 2007, is …
It seems as if more and more economic forecasters believe that the economy will progressively get better by year-end, but that employment will lag considerably. Often the “jobless recovery” theme is either overtly mentioned or at least hinted. Can such a “jobless recovery” exist, given the current level of indebtedness at the personal, municipal, state and …