America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various estimates, the probability of recession has grown significantly. As seen in …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through December 2, 2022) from the Advisor Perspectives’ …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The Advisor Perspectives’ post of December 2, 2022, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index Update” …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of November 29, 2022 (“Consumer Confidence Falls Again in November“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through October 2022, updated on November 23, 2022. This value is $277,375 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various estimates, the probability of recession has grown significantly. As seen in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of October 28, 2022 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Inches Up in October“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these …