Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.
The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at high levels.
As seen in the January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey the consensus (average estimate) among various economists is for 2.65% GDP in 2023, 1.01% GDP in 2024, 1.99% GDP in 2025, and 2.01% in 2026.
Charts Indicating U.S. Economic Weakness
Below is a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:
The Yield Curve (T10Y2Y)
Many people believe that the Yield Curve is a leading economic indicator for the United States economy.
On March 1, 2010, I wrote a post on the issue, titled “The Yield Curve As A Leading Economic Indicator.”
While I continue to have the stated reservations regarding the “Yield Curve” as an indicator, I do believe that it should be monitored.
The U.S. Yield Curve (one proxy seen below) is (all things considered) notably inverted when viewed from a long-term perspective. Below is the spread between the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity and the 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from June 1976 through the February 2, 2024 update, showing a value of -.33% [10-Year Treasury Yield (FRED DGS10) of 3.87% as of the February 2 update, 2-Year Treasury Yield (FRED DGS2) of 4.20% as of the February 2 update]:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity [T10Y2Y], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 5, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
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Job Openings (JTSJOL)
Job openings (Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL]), although still at a (very) high level, have recently declined significantly. This “Job Openings” measure had a value of 9,026 (Thousands) through December 2023 as of the January 30, 2024 update, as shown below:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -19.7%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 4, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
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Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private (AWHAETP)
Average Weekly Hours of All Employees continues a significant downward progression. This “Average Weekly Hours” measure had a value of 34.1 (Hours) through January 2024 as of the February 2, 2024 update:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -1.4%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private [AWHAETP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 4, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP
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Total Federal Receipts (MTSR133FMS)
“Total Federal Receipts,” as measured on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, has (since 2020) been volatile for various reasons. The current value, last updated January 11, 2024, is -5.6%:
source: U.S. Department of the Treasury. Fiscal Service, Total Federal Receipts [MTSR133FMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 4, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSR133FMS
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Other Indicators
As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate weak economic growth or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4937.68 as this post is written