The July 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 15, 2023. The headline is “Economists Are Cutting Back Their Recession Expectations.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
An excerpt:
In the latest WSJ survey, economists expected gross domestic product to have grown at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, a sharp uptick from 0.2% in the previous survey. They still expect GDP to eventually contract, but later, and by less, than previously. They expect the economy to grow 0.6% in the third quarter, in contrast to the 0.3% contraction expected in the prior survey, followed by a 0.1% contraction in the fourth. Forecasters said GDP would increase 1% in 2023, measured from the fourth quarter of a year earlier, double the previous forecast of 0.5%.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 54%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 98%. For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the previously published survey] was 61%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted July 7 – July 12. Not every economist answered every question.
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Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2023: .97%
full-year 2024: 1.26%
full-year 2025: 2.08%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2023: 4.06%
December 2024: 4.46%
December 2025: 4.21%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2023: 3.67%
December 2024: 3.40%
December 2025: 3.36%
CPI:
December 2023: 3.22%
December 2024: 2.39%
December 2025: 2.31%
Core PCE:
full-year 2023: 3.74%
full-year 2024: 2.48%
full-year 2025: 2.19%
(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4505.72 as this post is written