The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 15, 2023. The headline is “Despite Easing Price Pressures, Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
While economists don’t think a recession can be avoided, they expect it to be relatively shallow and short-lived, in line with other recent surveys.
On average, they expect gross domestic product to expand at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and contract 0.4% in the second. They see no growth for the third quarter and a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth.
Economists expect GDP to stagnate this year, posting growth of just 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. In the WSJ survey in October, economists forecast 0.4% GDP growth in 2023.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 61%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 99%. For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the previously published survey] was 63%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 71 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted January 6 – January 10. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2022: .97%
full-year 2023: .17%
full-year 2024: 1.86%
full-year 2025: 2.22%
December 2023: 4.65%
December 2024: 4.63%
December 2025: 4.23%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2023: 3.52%
December 2024: 3.33%
December 2025: 3.36%
December 2023: 3.10%
December 2024: 2.35%
December 2025: 2.32%
full-year 2022: 4.74%
full-year 2023: 3.11%
full-year 2024: 2.36%
full-year 2025: 2.24%
(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3999.09 as this post is written