The April 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 8, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause Deep U.S. Contraction, 13% Unemployment.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Two excerpts:
The coronavirus pandemic will cause a severe economic contraction, 14.4 million job losses and a spike in the unemployment rate this spring, with an economic recovery starting the second half of the year, economists forecast in a Wall Street Journal survey.
Business and academic economists in this month’s survey expect, on average, that the unemployment rate will hit 13% in June this year, and still be at 10% in December. The jobless rate was 4.4% in March.
also:
Economists predict gross domestic product will contract at an annual rate of 25% in the second quarter. That is a sharp downgrade from the March survey of economists, when they expected GDP to shrink just 0.1% from April to June.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 96.24%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 15% to 100%. For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 48.8%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 57 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted April 3 – April 7, 2020.
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Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2020: -4.90%
full-year 2021: 5.08%
full-year 2022: 2.59%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2020: 9.66%
December 2021: 6.54%
December 2022: 4.88%
December 2023: 4.63%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2020: .95%
December 2021: 1.41%
December 2022: 1.83%
CPI:
December 2020: .62%
December 2021: 2.02%
December 2022: 2.34%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2020: $34.94
for 12/31/2021: $45.19
for 12/31/2022: $51.74
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2743.10 as this post is written