The May 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 9, 2019. The headline is “Nearly 70% of Economists Expect Faster Wage Growth Over Next Year, WSJ Survey Says.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
An excerpt:
Just over a third of economists, 35.7%, expect the next recession to start in 2020, while 52.4% expect it will start in 2021. That marked a shift from the prior two surveys, when nearly half of respondents expected the next recession to start in 2020. In April, 40% predicted the next downturn will start in 2021, while in March about a third forecast a downturn to begin in 2021.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 22.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 45%. For reference, the average response in April’s survey was 25.80%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted May 3 – May 7, 2019.
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Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2019: 2.3%
full-year 2020: 1.8%
full-year 2021: 1.8%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2019: 3.6%
December 2020: 3.8%
December 2021: 4.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2019: 2.75%
December 2020: 2.80%
December 2021: 2.82%
CPI:
December 2019: 2.20%
December 2020: 2.10%
December 2021: 2.10%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2019: $62.10
for 12/31/2020: $60.56
for 12/31/2021: $60.07
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2870.72 as this post is written