The May 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 9, 2019. The headline is “Nearly 70% of Economists Expect Faster Wage Growth Over Next Year, WSJ Survey Says.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Just over a third of economists, 35.7%, expect the next recession to start in 2020, while 52.4% expect it will start in 2021. That marked a shift from the prior two surveys, when nearly half of respondents expected the next recession to start in 2020. In April, 40% predicted the next downturn will start in 2021, while in March about a third forecast a downturn to begin in 2021.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 22.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 45%. For reference, the average response in April’s survey was 25.80%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted May 3 – May 7, 2019.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2019: 2.3%
full-year 2020: 1.8%
full-year 2021: 1.8%
December 2019: 3.6%
December 2020: 3.8%
December 2021: 4.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2019: 2.75%
December 2020: 2.80%
December 2021: 2.82%
December 2019: 2.20%
December 2020: 2.10%
December 2021: 2.10%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2019: $62.10
for 12/31/2020: $60.56
for 12/31/2021: $60.07
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2870.72 as this post is written