The January 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 10, 2019. The headline is “Economists See U.S. Recession Risks Rising.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Two excerpts:
On average, economists surveyed in the past week as part of The Wall Street Journal’s monthly poll said there was a 25% chance of a recession in the next year, the highest level since October 2011. The probability was just 13% a year ago.
also:
Forecasters are even more concerned about the outlook for 2020. More than half of the economists, 56.6%, said they expected a recession to start in 2020, a presidential election year, while another 26.4% of those surveyed expect a recession in 2021.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 24.80%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 60%. For reference, the average response in December’s survey was 22.02%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 73 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted January 4 – January 8, 2019.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2018: 3.1%
full-year 2019: 2.2%
full-year 2020: 1.7%
full-year 2021: 1.8%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2019: 3.6%
December 2020: 3.9%
December 2021: 4.2%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2019: 3.10%
December 2020: 3.12%
December 2021: 3.18%
CPI:
December 2018: 2.00%
December 2019: 2.20%
December 2020: 2.20%
December 2021: 2.20%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2019: $56.50
for 12/31/2020: $58.31
for 12/31/2021: $58.80
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2592.11 as this post is written