The September 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 13, 2018. The headline is “Most Economists See Tariff Effects on U.S. Economy As Limited.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Two excerpts:
Around two-thirds of respondents commented that trade or tariffs were the biggest risks to their economic growth forecasts in the next 12 months.
also:
Back in the January survey, half of economists said the tax cuts signed into law by Mr. Trump in December would boost the economy’s long-run trend at least modestly, while the other half said it would have no effect or leave growth somewhat below its current trajectory.
Nine months later, 35.2% said they would boost the long-run growth outlook modestly, while 44.4% expected the tax cuts would have “little impact” on the long-run growth outlook and 11.1% said the tax cuts would hamper the long-run outlook.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 17.73%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 45%. For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 18.3%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 59 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted September 7 – September 11, 2018.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2018: 3.1%
full-year 2019: 2.4%
full-year 2020: 1.8%
full-year 2021: 1.9%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2018: 3.7%
December 2019: 3.6%
December 2020: 3.9%
December 2021: 4.0%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2018: 3.13%
December 2019: 3.42%
December 2020: 3.41%
December 2021: 3.44%
CPI:
December 2018: 2.40%
December 2019: 2.30%
December 2020: 2.20%
December 2021: 2.10%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2018: $69.37
for 12/31/2019: $67.47
for 12/31/2020: $64.53
for 12/31/2021: $64.76
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation