The July 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 13, 2017. The headline is “Forecasters Lower Economic Outlook Amid Congressional Gridlock.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Forecasters in The Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey of economists marked down their outlooks for growth, inflation and interest rates this month, a partial reversal of a postelection bump.
Forecasters assess whether they think the economy is more likely to outperform or underperform their forecasts. The number of economists seeing those risks to the downside climbed to 57% in this month’s survey, the highest since before the election. That’s up from 51% last month and 37% just two months ago.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 14.78%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%. For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 15.80%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 63 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey occurred on July 7, 2017 to July 11, 2017.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2017: 2.3%
full-year 2018: 2.4%
full-year 2019: 1.9%
December 2017: 4.3%
December 2018: 4.1%
December 2019: 4.3%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2017: 2.65%
December 2018: 3.12%
December 2019: 3.39%
December 2017: 1.8%
December 2018: 2.3%
December 2019: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2017: $47.45
for 12/31/2018: $51.16
for 12/31/2019: $51.99
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2448.24 as post is written