The November 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 13, 2016. The headline is “GDP, Inflation And Interest Rates Forecast to Rise Under Trump Presidency.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
On average, economists marked up their growth forecasts. The economy could expand 2.2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018, as a fiscal stimulus kicks into gear, up from about 1.5% over the past 12 months. Inflation is seen at 2.2% next year and 2.4% in 2018. If correct, it would be the first stretch of sustained inflation above 2% since before the recession of 2007 to 2009.
The forecasts were collected from 57 academic, business and financial economists from Nov. 9 to Nov. 11. Their average forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates in both 2017 and 2018 all rose, at least slightly, from a survey conducted before the election in October.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 18.54%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 60%. For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 20.24%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2016: 1.8%
full-year 2017: 2.2%
full-year 2018: 2.3%
December 2016: 4.9%
December 2017: 4.6%
December 2018: 4.6%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2016: 2.05%
December 2017: 2.49%
December 2018: 3.00%
December 2016: 1.8%
December 2017: 2.2%
December 2018: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2016: $47.44
for 12/31/2017: $53.00
for 12/31/2018: $56.53
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2165.53 as post is written