The May 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 12, 2016. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Divided Over Next Fed Rate Increase.” As indicated in the article, 70 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question.
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The sudden drop-off in expectations of a June move followed a bumpy few weeks for the U.S. economy. In April, the Commerce Department reported output rose in the first quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.5%, the weakest reading in two years. Employers also pulled back in April, adding 160,000 jobs, down from 208,000 in March and 233,000 in February, the Labor Department reported.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 19.61%; the average response in April’s survey was 19.03%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 60%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2016: 1.9%
full-year 2017: 2.2%
full-year 2018: 2.2%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.6%
December 2018: 4.7%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2016: 2.24%
December 2017: 2.74%
December 2018: 3.20%
December 2016: 1.7%
December 2017: 2.2%
December 2018: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2016: $45.23
for 12/31/2017: $50.67
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2058.72 as post is written