The March 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 10, 2016. The headline is “U.S. Election Turmoil Fuels Economic Uncertainty, WSJ Survey Says.” As indicated in the article, 64 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question.
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Markets rebounded over the past month as economic reports bolstered the case that continued—though moderate—economic growth seems likely. The average survey respondent estimates the economy will grow about 2.4% this year and next and that the unemployment rate will fall to 4.6% in 2017.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 19.84%; the average response in February’s survey was 21.25%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 1.9%
full-year 2016: 2.4%
full-year 2017: 2.3%
full-year 2018: 2.2%
December 2016: 4.6%
December 2017: 4.6%
December 2018: 4.6%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2016: 2.41%
December 2017: 2.92%
December 2018: 3.30%
December 2016: 1.8%
December 2017: 2.3%
December 2018: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2016: $42.61
for 12/31/2017: $47.66
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1983.16 as post is written