The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 16, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Fed Will Raise Rates in September.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The Fed has kept its benchmark federal-funds rate pinned near zero since December 2008 and hasn’t raised rates since June 2006. Ms. Yellen has said repeatedly the Fed is on track to raise rates this year as the U.S. economy heals from the 2007-09 recession.
“If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal-funds rate target, thereby beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy,” Ms. Yellen told lawmakers Wednesday.
Even so, 71% of economists in the July survey said the greater risk was that the Fed would raise interest rates too late, versus 29% who said the greater risk was the central bank would move too soon. That breakdown was little changed from June’s survey.
The latest Journal survey was conducted Friday through Tuesday; 60 business and academic economists offered predictions for the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 10.02%; the average response in June was 10.33%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 2.2%
full-year 2016: 2.7%
full-year 2017: 2.5%
December 2015: 5.1%
December 2016: 4.8%
December 2017: 4.7%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.72%
December 2016: 3.35%
December 2017: 3.72%
December 2015: 1.3%
December 2016: 2.2%
December 2017: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2015: $58.06
for 12/31/2016: $64.67
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2122.04 as post is written