The May 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 14, 2015.  The headline is “Economists’ Forecast:  Here We Grow Again.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

The survey of 62 economists, not all of whom answered every question, showed a widespread expectation that consumers would start spending again after several months of avoiding the mall. The May survey was conducted before the Commerce Department reported retail sales were flat in April, but some economists played down the number.


The economists’ first-quarter rethink brought down the forecast for all of 2015 to 2.2% from 2.7% expected in the April survey. That means growth for all of 2015 is expected to be another disappointment, falling below 2014’s 2.4% rate instead of eclipsing it as many economists originally expected.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.62%; the average response in April was 11.23%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2015:  2.2%

full-year 2016:  2.8%

full-year 2017:  2.5%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2015: 5.1%

December 2016: 4.8%

December 2017: 4.7%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2015: 2.60%

December 2016: 3.32%

December 2017: 3.74%


December 2015:  1.2%

December 2016:  2.3%

December 2017:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2015: $61.44

for 12/31/2016: $68.09

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2120.69 as this post is written