The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 11, 2014. The headline is “Economists See Stronger Growth in 2015.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
According to the panel of 45 economists—not all of whom answered every question—the U.S. economy should grow an inflation-adjusted 2.9% across the four quarters of 2015. The forecast would make 2015 the second-strongest year of the economic expansion, which passed its five-year anniversary last summer.
As has been the case through much of 2014, the panel sees a negative global event as the biggest downside risk to the U.S. outlook. Slower global growth was the biggest concern identified by forecasters worried about international drags. But some economists cited other risks, such as problems in the Chinese and Japanese financial systems and military action by Russia in Eastern Europe.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.45%; November’s average response was 11.73%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2014: 2.2%
full-year 2015: 2.9%
full-year 2016: 2.8%
December 2014: 5.8%
December 2015: 5.3%
December 2016: 5.0%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2014: 2.36%
December 2015: 3.20%
December 2016: 3.75%
December 2014: 1.4%
December 2015: 1.9%
December 2016: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2014: $64.73
for 12/31/2015: $72.10
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2020.74 as this post is written