The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 13, 2014. The headline is “Economists’ View: Lower Inflation, Decent Growth.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Two excerpts:
According to the panel of 44 economists—not all of whom answered every question—yearly inflation as measured by the consumer-price index will end 2014 at 1.6%. That’s a sharp shift in just a couple of months. As recently as the September survey, the consensus view was that inflation would accelerate and end the year at 2.1%. Inflation was running at 1.7% in September, the latest Labor Department reading.
also:
Low energy prices will help support a steady but unspectacular expansion through mid-2015, the panelists say. They expect inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to grow at an annualized 2.7% pace this quarter and 2.8% in the first half of 2015. The unemployment rate will drift lower from October’s 5.8%, according to the consensus view of forecasters. They forecast the rate will end 2014 at 5.7% and finish 2015 at 5.3%.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.73%; October’s average response was 11.88%.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2014: 2.2%
full-year 2015: 2.8%
full-year 2016: 2.8%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2014: 5.7%
December 2015: 5.3%
December 2016: 5.0%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2014: 2.52%
December 2015: 3.34%
December 2016: 3.80%
CPI:
December 2014: 1.6%
December 2015: 2.0%
December 2016: 2.2%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2014: $78.82
for 12/31/2015: $82.78
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2033.38 as this post is written