The July 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 17, 2014.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists Worry the Fed Will Keep Rates Low Too Long.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

One excerpt:

Some 79% of the 42 economists who answered the question said the greater risk is that the Fed will raise rates too late, versus 21% who said the greater risk is that the Fed will raise rates too soon.

As seen in the “Economic Indicators” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 12.13%; June’s average response was 11.36%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2014:  1.6%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

full-year 2016:  2.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2014: 5.9%

December 2015: 5.5%

December 2016: 5.3%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2014: 3.07%

December 2015: 3.69%

December 2016: 4.13%


December 2014:  2.3%

December 2015:  2.1%

December 2016:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2014: $99.02

for 12/31/2015: $97.82


(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1958.12 as this post is written