The March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 13, 2014. The headline is “Economists See China Slowdown as Biggest Threat to U.S. Recovery.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Economist Q&A.
Two excerpts I found notable:
When asked what overseas force has the greatest potential to slow U.S. growth, 27 of the 49 economists—not all of whom answered every question asked—cited China’s weakening economy. Only eight pointed to the Ukraine standoff and six thought the biggest risk could be a new crisis in the Middle East. The survey was conducted March 7-11 as the crisis in Crimea unfolded.
With the outlook holding steady, forecasters continue to think faster growth rather than recession is the more likely surprise for 2014. On average, respondents give a 38% chance that real GDP will grow above 3% this year and only 12% odds of another recession starting.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2014: 2.7%
full-year 2015: 3.0%
full-year 2016: 2.9%
December 2014: 6.2%
December 2015: 5.7%
December 2016: 5.5%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2014: 3.39%
December 2015: 3.92%
December 2016: 4.31%
December 2014: 1.9%
December 2015: 2.1%
December 2016: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2014: $96.06
for 12/31/2015: $94.71
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1845.54 as this post is written