The May 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 13, 2013.  The headline is “Economic Road Clearing, but the Going is Slow.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.

Notable excerpts from the article include:

The 52 forecasters, not all of whom answered every question, are unusually unified in their assessment, with few seeing growth significantly faster or slower than the consensus estimate. Asked about economic threats, they cited a familiar litany of concerns—a renewed crisis in Europe, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, gridlock in Washington—but even most pessimists saw little threat of a severe downturn. Overall, the economists put the risk of a new recession at just 15%, down from 24% in December.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2013:  2.4%

full-year 2014:  2.8%

full-year 2015:  3.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2013: 7.3%

December 2014: 6.7%

December 2015: 6.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2013: 2.23%

December 2014: 2.86%

December 2015: 3.48%


December 2013:  1.8%

December 2014:  2.2%

December 2015:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2013: $95.39

for 12/31/2014: $97.19

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1630.49 as this post is written