Trends In Real Personal Income Growth

In various posts I have commented about the troubling long- and short-term trends in income growth.  (Many of these past posts are seen under the “household income” tag)

While there are many ways to measure these income trends, regardless of the measurement or time period used, the trends appear worrisome.

As I highlighted in the May 14 post (“ECRI Statements From The Week Of May 7, 2012“), ECRI commented upon Real Personal Income growth in their May 9 release titled “Revoking Recession:  48th Time’s The Charm?

Here is an excerpt from that release:

For the last three months, year-over-year growth in real personal income has stayed lower than it was at the beginning of each of the last ten recessions. In other words, this is what personal income growth typically looks like early in a recession.

Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? The answer is no.

The release also contains a chart of U.S. Real Personal Income, presented on a Year-over-Year Growth (%) basis from 1952.

In his May 26 post titled “ECRI Recession Call Update:  Weekly Leading Index Declines Again,” Doug Short features a chart depicting Real Personal Income on a Year-over-Year basis.  Here is the chart for reference:


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1332.42 as this post is written