The March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 19, 2012. The headline is “So Far, Economy Hasn’t Slipped On Oil Prices.”
The commentary largely focuses on the rising prices of oil and gasoline and the economists’ views on how they will impact the economy.
Also, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), the economists put the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 16%.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2012: 2.4%
full-year 2013: 2.7%
full-year 2014: 3.1%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2012: 8.0%
December 2013: 7.5%
December 2014: 6.8%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2012: 2.55%
December 2013: 3.17%
December 2014: 3.83%
CPI:
December 2012: 2.4%
December 2013: 2.3%
December 2014: 2.6%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2012: $103.96
(note: I comment upon this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1409.75 as this post is written