Market Overview – Part 1

This series of blog posts (5 posts) represents a periodic Technical Analysis of the markets.  In this series I will discuss currencies (US Dollar and Japanese Yen); Gold; The Bond Market & Interest Rates; and the Stock Market.

I feel that this is an important juncture in investing for many reasons.  Many markets have experienced strong gains recently, adding to what has been in many cases very strong performances since early 2009.

Perhaps the main question at this point is whether such performance will continue across these markets, i.e. is such performance sustainable?  I continue to be of the opinion that it is not.  As I have commented previously, I view the stock market as experiencing a strong “bear market rally,” one that won’t and can’t continue.   This dynamic of strong yet unsustainable performance is seen duplicated across many different asset classes.  Further, as I have previously commented, my analysis indicates that many asset classes (on a worldwide basis) are full-fledged asset bubbles.  This is admittedly an opinion held by very few.  However, the ramifications of such are immense, both for markets and the economy in general.

While this series of posts will focus on Technical Analysis issues, I will also provide reference links to previous comments I have made on these markets from both fundamental and technical perspectives.

Before displaying some charts, I would like to make a couple of disclaimers.   First,  an extensive overview of all of my Technical Analysis observations would be very lengthy, and it would also infringe upon some facets I consider to be proprietary.  As such, I will limit my observations, but I think most people will still get an overview of my thoughts.  Second, I am aware that many people don’t believe in Technical Analysis.  Even though I use Technical Analysis extensively, I will readily admit it is not infallible.  As readers of this blog are aware, the majority of my focus is on fundamental aspects of the markets and the economic situation.

Now, on to Part II – a discussion of the U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Gold…


A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1183.08 as this post is written