I would like to briefly comment on Ben Bernanke’s December 7 speech, that can be found at this link:
Here is one excerpt that I found notable:
“Economic forecasts are subject to great uncertainty, but my best guess at this point is that we will continue to see modest economic growth next year–sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate, but at a pace slower than we would like.”
I found this notable as he is reiterating his opinion that economic forecasting is inherently uncertain. In his May 22 speech, which I commented upon in a June 17 post, he had spoken at length on this issue.
I think that this inherent uncertainty in economic forecasting is a very important point. I have written about the topic, and have extensively detailed how accurate economic forecasting, especially since 2007 has proven incredibly difficult. This issue doesn’t seem to gather much attention. However, among other issues, it seems as if it should call into question the potential accuracy of current economic forecasts.
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