Category Archives: Unemployment

Two Other Views Of Employment Growth

In the last post (“Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payrolls – August 8, 2016“) I featured five long-term charts showing the monthly change in the Total Nonfarm Payrolls measure.  While the monthly change in this measure, as well as the official Unemployment Rate (U-3),  are the most prevalent statistics regarding employment and unemployment levels respectively, there are many other lesser-known measures – and associated dynamics – that deserve much greater recognition.  Some of these other unemployment measures have been featured on this site.

Among these lesser-known measures that deserve (much) greater recognition are the Employment-Population Ratio and the “percent change in employment” measure compared to other past economic recoveries [as defined by the NBER BCDC.]

I have discussed the Employment-Population Ratio in the August 11, 2010 post (“Employment-Population Ratio – Chart And Comments“) as well as the February 10, 2016 post (“The Employment-Population Ratio.”)

Below is an updated chart (from January 1948 through July 2016) of the ratio.  The July 2016 value is 59.7%:

Employment-Population Ratio

source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Employment-Population Ratio [EMRATIO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 8, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO

The second measure is the “percent change in employment” measure compared to other past economic recoveries.  This is one comparison of job creation since the economic recovery as compared against similarly-defined past recovery periods.

Below is a chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (last updated August 5, 2016) that shows the “Change In U.S. Employment” on a percentage basis of both the current recovery (red line) as well as those previous, as shown:

percentage change in employment during recoveries

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2180.89 as this post is written

Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payrolls – August 8, 2016 Update

For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment.

Total nonfarm payrolls (data series PAYEMS, which is seasonally adjusted) is defined in Financial Reserve Economic Data [FRED] as:

All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed. This measure accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who contribute to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This measure provides useful insights into the current economic situation because it can represent the number of jobs added or lost in an economy. Increases in employment might indicate that businesses are hiring which might also suggest that businesses are growing. Additionally, those who are newly employed have increased their personal incomes, which means (all else constant) their disposable incomes have also increased, thus fostering further economic expansion.

Generally, the U.S. labor force and levels of employment and unemployment are subject to fluctuations due to seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts the data to offset the seasonal effects to show non-seasonal changes: for example, women’s participation in the labor force; or a general decline in the number of employees, a possible indication of a downturn in the economy. To closely examine seasonal and non-seasonal changes, the BLS releases two monthly statistical measures: the seasonally adjusted All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) and All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYNSA), which is not seasonally adjusted.

The series comes from the ‘Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey).’

The source code is: CES0000000001

The first chart shows the monthly change in total nonfarm payrolls since the year 2000:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

PAYEMS Monthly Change since 2000

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed August 7, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

The second chart shows a long-term chart of the same month-over-month change in total nonfarm payrolls (reports of January 1939 through the present report of July 2016):

PAYEMS Monthly Change from 1939

The third chart shows the aggregate number of total nonfarm payrolls, from January 1939 – July 2016 (July 2016 value of 144.448 million):

PAYEMS since 1939

The fourth chart shows this same aggregate number of total nonfarm payrolls measure as seen above but presented on a LOG scale:

PAYEMS Since 1939 on a LOG basis

Lastly, the fifth chart shows the total nonfarm payrolls number on a “percent change from year ago” basis from January 1939 – July 2016:

PAYEMS percent change from year ago

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2182.87 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of August 5, 2016

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.9% unemployment rate:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 8-5-16)

unemployment rate

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed August 5, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 9.7% unemployment rate:

U-6 rate

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed August 5, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2180.61 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – August 2016

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 11.6 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 8-5-16)

median duration of unemployment

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed August 5, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 2.020 million):

unemployed 27 weeks and over

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed August 5, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 144.448 million):

Total Nonfarm Payroll

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed August 5, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the current – and especially future – unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.    These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” category.  This commentary includes the April 24, 2012 five-part post titled “The Unemployment Situation Facing The United States”, which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2179.12 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of July 8, 2016

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.9% unemployment rate:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 7-8-16)

unemployment rate

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 8, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 9.6% unemployment rate:

U6RATE

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 8, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2129.99 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – July 2016

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 10.3 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 7-8-16)

median duration of unemployment

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 8, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.979 million):

unemployed 27 weeks and over

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 8, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 144.175 million):

Total Nonfarm Payroll

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 8, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.    These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” category.  This commentary includes the April 24, 2012 five-part post titled “The Unemployment Situation Facing The United States”, which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2128.79 as this post is written

“Not In Labor Force” Statistic – As Of June 2016

In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working.

Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in which I discussed various facets of this measure.

Below is an updated chart regarding this statistic.  The current figure, last updated on June 3, 2016 depicting data through May 2016, is 94.374 million people (Not Seasonally Adjusted):

not in labor force

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Not In Labor Force [LNU05000000] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 3, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU05000000

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2091.68 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of June 3, 2016

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.7% unemployment rate:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 6-3-16)

U-3 unemployment chart

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 3, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 9.7% unemployment rate:

U-6 rate

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 3, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2090.32 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – June 2016

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 10.7 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 6-3-16)

median duration of unemployment

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 3, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.885 million):

unemployed 27 weeks and over

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 3, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 143.894 million):

total nonfarm payroll

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 3, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.    These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” category.  This commentary includes the April 24, 2012 five-part post titled “The Unemployment Situation Facing The United States”, which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2105.26 as this post is written

Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payrolls – May 9, 2016 Update

For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment.

The first chart shows the monthly change in total nonfarm payrolls since the year 2000:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

change in total nonfarm payrolls since the year 2000

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 9, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

The second chart shows a long-term chart of the same month-over-month change in total nonfarm payrolls (reports of January 1939 to the present report of April 2016):

monthly change in total nonfarm payrolls since 1939

The third chart shows the aggregate number of total nonfarm payrolls, from January 1939 – April 2016 (April 2016 value of 143.915 million):

total nonfarm payrolls since 1939

The fourth chart shows this same aggregate number of total nonfarm payrolls measure as seen above but presented on a LOG scale:

total nonfarm payrolls from 1939-01 through April 2016

Lastly, the fifth chart shows the total nonfarm payrolls number on a “percent change from year ago” basis from January 1939 – April 2016:

total nonfarm payrolls percent change from year ago

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2062.12 as this post is written