Category Archives: Unemployment

Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payrolls – May 9, 2016 Update

For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment.

The first chart shows the monthly change in total nonfarm payrolls since the year 2000:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

change in total nonfarm payrolls since the year 2000

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 9, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

The second chart shows a long-term chart of the same month-over-month change in total nonfarm payrolls (reports of January 1939 to the present report of April 2016):

monthly change in total nonfarm payrolls since 1939

The third chart shows the aggregate number of total nonfarm payrolls, from January 1939 – April 2016 (April 2016 value of 143.915 million):

total nonfarm payrolls since 1939

The fourth chart shows this same aggregate number of total nonfarm payrolls measure as seen above but presented on a LOG scale:

total nonfarm payrolls from 1939-01 through April 2016

Lastly, the fifth chart shows the total nonfarm payrolls number on a “percent change from year ago” basis from January 1939 – April 2016:

total nonfarm payrolls percent change from year ago

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2062.12 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of May 6, 2016

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 5.0% unemployment rate:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 5-6-16)

Unemployment Rate

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 6, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 9.7% unemployment rate:

U6 rate

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 6, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2049.25 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – May 2016

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 11.4 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 5-6-16)

median duration of unemployment

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 6, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 2.063 million):

Unemployed 27 weeks and over

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 6, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 143.915 million):

total nonfarm payroll

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 6, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.    These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” category.  This commentary includes the April 24, 2012 five-part post titled “The Unemployment Situation Facing The United States”, which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2049.54 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of April 1, 2016

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 5.0% unemployment rate:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 4-1-16)

U-3

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 1, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 9.8% unemployment rate:

U-6

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 1, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2064.25 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – April 2016

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 11.4 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 4-1-16)

median duration of unemployment

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 1, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 2.213 million):

unemployed 27 weeks and over

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 1, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 143.774 million):

total nonfarm payroll

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 1, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.    These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” category.  This commentary includes the April 24, 2012 five-part post titled “The Unemployment Situation Facing The United States”, which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2061.31 as this post is written

“Not In Labor Force” Statistic – As Of March 2016

In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working.

Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in which I discussed various facets of this measure.

Below is an updated chart regarding this statistic.  The current figure, last updated on March 4, 2016 depicting data through February 2016, is 94.298 million people (Not Seasonally Adjusted):

Not In The Labor Force

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Not In Labor Force [LNU05000000] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 6, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU05000000

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1999.99 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of March 4, 2016

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.9% unemployment rate:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 3-4-16)

unemployment rate

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 4, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 9.7% unemployment rate:

U-6 Rate

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 4, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2004.76 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – March 2016

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 11.2 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 3-4-16)

median duration of unemployment

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 4, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 2.165 million):

unemployed 27 weeks and over

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 4, 2016;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 143.560 million):

total nonfarm payroll

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 4, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.    These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” category.  This commentary includes the April 24, 2012 five-part post titled “The Unemployment Situation Facing The United States”, which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2008.28 as this post is written

The Employment-Population Ratio

In the August 11, 2010 post (“Employment-Population Ratio – Chart And Comments“) I featured a chart of the Employment-Population Ratio and brief commentary.

For those unaware of this measure, a description is seen in the February 3, 2014 Liberty Street Economics post titled “A Mis-Leading Labor Market Indicator“:

The employment-population (E/P) ratio frequently is used as an additional labor market measure. The E/P ratio is defined as the number of employed divided by the size of the working-age, noninstitutionalized population. An advantage of the E/P ratio over the unemployment rate is that it is not impacted by discouraged workers who stop looking for employment. The E/P ratio also dominates a measure focusing just on total employment in the economy, since it adjusts for changes in the size of the working-age population.

Additional commentary regarding the Employment-Population Ratio can be seen in various sources, including the May 27, 2015 Congressional Research Service document titled “An Overview of the Employment-Population Ratio.” (pdf)

Below is an updated chart (from January 1948 through January 2016) of the ratio, .  The January 2016 value is 59.6%:

employment-population ratio

source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Employment-Population Ratio [EMRATIO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 8, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1852.21as this post is written

Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payrolls

For reference purposes, below are three charts that display growth in payroll employment.

The first chart is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) February 8, 2016 The Economics Daily (TED) post titled “Payroll employment up 151,000 in January 2016.”  It shows, as stated, “Over-the-month change in (total) payroll employment” from January 2006-January 2016:

change in payroll employment

The second chart shows the month-over-month change in total nonfarm payrolls in the 1990’s: (reports of January 1990-December 1999)

monthly change in nonfarm payrolls

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed February 8, 2016;

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

The third chart shows a long-term chart of the same month-over-month change in total nonfarm payrolls (reports of January 1939 to the present report of January 2016):

monthly change in nonfarm payroll

Lastly, the chart below shows the aggregate number of total nonfarm payrolls, from January 1939 – January 2016 (January 2016 value of 143.288 million):

total nonfarm payrolls

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1853.44 as this post is written