Disturbing Charts (Update 15)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 61 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following nine charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 6-17-14):

Housing Starts

The Federal Deficit (last updated 3-14-14):

Federal Deficit

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 3-14-14):

Federal Net Outlays

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-27-14):

State And Local Income Tax Receipts

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-11-14):

Total Loans and Leases

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-11-14):

Total Bank Credit

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 7-3-14):

money multiplier

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 7-3-14):

median duration of unemployment

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 7-3-14):

Labor Force Participation Rate

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 6-23-14):

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1973.28 as this post is written