The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 19, 2013. The headline is “Yellen Seen as Front-Runner for Top Fed Post.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.
As to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the average was 13%.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2013: 2.1%
full-year 2014: 2.8%
full-year 2015: 3.0%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2013: 7.3%
December 2014: 6.7%
December 2015: 6.2%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2013: 2.70%
December 2014: 3.30%
December 2015: 3.82%
CPI:
December 2013: 1.7%
December 2014: 2.1%
December 2015: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2013: $98.61
for 12/31/2014: $99.13
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1688.16 as this post is written