Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – March 29, 2013 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reiterated the view that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, seen most recently in these two sources :

  • ECRI, March 5, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years (provides a link to a 17-page ECRI report dated March 2013 titled “The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years”)
  • ECRI, March 8 Interview Summary (provides links to 3 video interviews)

Other past notable 2012 reaffirmations of the September 30, 2011 recession call by ECRI were seen (in chronological order)  on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands”) as well as various interviews and statements the week of May 6, including:

Also, subsequent to May 2012:

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of March 29 titled “ECRI’s ‘Recession’ Indicator:  Unchanged from Last Week.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the March 29 release, indicating data through March 22, 2013.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Dshort 3-29-13 - ECRI-WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

Dshort 3-29-13 - ECRI-WLI-YoY

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

Dshort 3-29-13 - ECRI-WLI-growth-since-1965



I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1569.13 as this post is written